Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
06/15/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the first time in two seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a captain and his name is Dion Phaneuf.
The former Calgary Flames defenseman was bestowed the captaincy of the historic franchise at a media conference yesterday, one that doubled as a debut for new uniforms the players will be sporting when the puck drops next season.
With the honor, Phaneuf became the 18th player in history to wear the "C" for the blue and white, and the first since Mats Sundin gave up his 11-year grasp on the title in 2008.
The 25-year-old Phaneuf spoke with pride while sharing the stage with Leaf royalty, as former captains George Armstrong, Darryl Sittler and Wendel Clark watched on.
"With this new responsibility, my plan is to be myself," said Phaneuf, reading from a prepared statement. "I want to lead on and off the ice. Above all else the team and winning hockey games will be front and center. We have a lot of work to do, but we will work hard together, everyone is ready to work hard and get better as a team. I am confident and welcome my role in seeing that happen."
General Manager Brian Burke, who received much criticism over the past two seasons for not naming a captain, believes it was worth the wait.
"We never felt that we needed a captain, we felt that we needed to wait until we had the right person to come in and fulfill that role," said Burke. "This is one of the greatest franchises in the history of professional sports on this planet and we wanted to make sure today that we put the "C" on someone that would live up to that."
Burke stressed that the decision was always in the hands of head coach Ron Wilson, but said Phaneuf was the player he had in mind for the role when trading for the former Norris Trophy finalist earlier in the year.
"If I had been asked, this is the player that I would have begged Ronnie to name as the next Captain," said Burke.
While Phaneuf was a natural choice for Wilson as well, he pointed to his coaching days in San Jose as a determining factor that helped him come to his final decision.
"I had the pleasure of coaching against Dion when I was with San Jose and we thought right off the bat that he was a remarkable talent and getting better every year," said Wilson. "He's someone who plays with passion, comes to the rink every day and works harder than anybody."
Critics of the move will point to the rumored relationship issues between Phaneuf and some of his old Flames teammates as reasons for worry, but as Burke sees it, it was a case of there being too many alpha dogs in one room.
With veterans like Jarome Iginla and Robyn Regehr leading the team in Calgary, there wasn't room for another strong-willed individual to take charge.
In the Leafs dressing room no such challenge existed and last year Phaneuf took full advantage.
"The atmosphere changed to where Dion started challenging people the day he got here, we need loud music, we need to call for passes in practice. He started changing the culture within seconds after he got into the dressing the room," Burke said.
"The young players that talked to me about it said this is a guy who saw a leadership vacuum and leaped into it and filled it."
With the Leafs being such a young team, Phaneuf's role in setting the tone for youngsters like Tyler Bozak, Nazim Kadri, and Luke Schenn will be an important one.
If one player benefited immediately from the trade last year it was fellow blue liner Schenn, who saw the pressure to perform in his sophomore season lifted when Phaneuf came in.
When asked if there were parts of Phaneuf's game he could learn from, Schenn said there was a lot to look up too.
"He's good in all areas of the ice, you can learn a lot from him," the defenseman said. "His physicality, how he makes the forwards on the other team pay the price when he's on the ice and also his ability to shoot the puck, and also his intensity."
It's that intensity the organization hopes will filter down through a team that has been described in previous years as being entitled, a condition that Burke has publicly described as "blue and white disease."
It's a sickness he's been fighting since he arrived in the city.
If there is one thing that Leaf fans can be sure of, it's that the team will look like winners when they take the ice in the fall.
The boys in blue and white will sport a different look this year with a jersey that's a throwback to 1993. With horizontal stripes at the bottom of the sweater and a shoulder patch depicting an older version of the Leaf logo, it is a sweater that Burke said "Marks a return to our roots."
Hopefully, for the sake of Leafs' Nation, a return to their winning roots is in the cards as well.
<< Athletics continue road trip against Cubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics are still searching for a win on
their current road trip, as they begin a three-game series against the Chicago
Cubs this evening from historic Wrigley Field.
Oakland was swept in three games at San F
<< Tough task: D-Backs try to halt road skid in Boston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A big reason for Boston's recent success has been its play
at Fenway Park. That's not good news for the Diamondbacks, who will be vying
to halt a 10-game road losing streak tonight in the opener of a three-game
interleague se
<< Rays send Price to the hill against Braves, winless Kawakami
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While Rays young gun David Price targets his 10th win of
the season, Atlanta starter Kenshin Kawakami has yet to taste victory in 2010.
Both pitchers will collide Tuesday night at Turner Field, where the Braves
will host T
<< Celtics try to clinch another title in Los Angeles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics have a chance to clinch their record
18th championship tonight when they visit the Los Angeles Lakers for Game 6 of
the 2010 NBA Finals at Staples Center.
The Celtics pushed the defending champs to the b
Suppan back on mound for Cardinals' clash with Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Suppan makes his return to the St. Louis Cardinals
this evening, when they continue their three-game interleague series against
the Seattle Mariners at Busch Stadium.
Suppan, who was released by Milwaukee last Monday,
Marlins send staff ace Johnson to hill vs. Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A series win over one of the top teams in baseball has the
Marlins on the verge of returning to the .500 mark. With Josh Johnson set to
start tonight, Florida has a good chance of reaching that mark.
Johnson will aim
Young hurlers go head-to-head in Blue Jays-Padres tilt >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays try to make it two straight wins this
evening, when they play the second test of their three-game interleague set
with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
Monday's opener was delayed briefly by a 5.7-
Royals welcome Astros to town >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a series victory over the National League
Central's first-place team, the Kansas City Royals will try to take down one
of that division's lesser members when the club returns to Kauffman Stadium
this evening for a
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting